NPHS 1510: Federal and International Framework

Emergency Problem Solving, Decision Making and Risk

Problem Solving

One of the prime responsibilities of a professional of any type is to make decisions. This section focuses on applying well accepted models of decision making to emergency situations.

Definitions     Problem: a situation or condition of people or the organization that will exist in the future, and that is considered undesirable by members of the organization. Problem solving: a set of activities designed to analyze a situation systematically and generate, implement, and evaluate solutions. Decision making: a mechanism for making choices at each step of the problem-solving process. Source: Department of Homeland Security, National Incident Management System (NIMS), 2008.

The diagram below shows a model for the problem solving process. This diagram was taken from the FEMA course on problem solving and decision making. (See Resources below for reference.)

In complex situations, the problem solving process may not be as compartmentalized as depicted above. For example we may confront an emergency and have to decide on a course of action to deal with the emergency. This may require us to identify and classify the emergency as an accident, a crime, terrorism, natural event, etc. in order to narrow alternative solutions. We might consider each step in the problem solving proces as an individual problem in and of itself. The table below lists some of the types of questions that might occur at each step of the problem solving process.

Problem Solving Questions Step 1: Identify the problem What is the goal of solving the problem? What are the key elements of the problem? What is part of the problem and what is not? How do I measure the elements? How can I affect/manipulate these elements? How do I know when the problem is solved? Step 2: Explore alternatives How do I discover new alternatives? Step 3: Select an alternative What are the costs and benefits of the alternatives? Are there side effects or unintended consequences? How do I compare alternatives? Step 4: Implement the solution What players are involved in making the solution work? Will partial implementation produce benefits? Step 5: Evaluate the solution Have I solved the problem? Have I created new problems? Are there long term effects? What are the lessons learned?

For example, consider the task of an emergency manager who is trying to plan for an accident at a plant that refines radioactive materials within his or her jurisdiction.

Step 1: Identify the problem The emergency manager might define the problem goal as limiting the contamination of people, animals and property to some acceptable levels. The scope of the problem might be limited to a geographic area. Within this area there might be roads rivers, houses farms, businesses, hospitals, etc. Factors such as weather, travel, nature, etc. (plus some safety factor) will help to define that area affected. Elements such as weather are uncontrollable. Human behavior can be controlled within limits. Step 2: Explore alternatives Classical strategies such as evacuation and sheltering-in-place are available. Are there mitigation strategies such as zoning to limit land use around the plant an option? Step 3: Select an alternative What common measures do the alternatives share for comparison (cost, people affected, time, etc.)? What are the relative values of these measures? Step 4: Implement the solution What groups might I organize (civic, faith-based, etc.) to help? How do I help the general public and those who cannot help themselves (children, Step 5: Evaluate the solution Have I solved the problem? How can I turn what I have learned by this planning to change the problem?

Effective problem solving is achieved through situational awareness. Situational awareness influences problem solving in numerous ways. In addition to the information available at the time, situational awareness is also a function of the decision maker's experience, education, and training. Exercises are mechanisms for honing both problem solving skills and situational awareness beyond a single situation.

Definition     Situational Awareness: The ability to identify, process, and comprehend the critical elements of information about an incident. Source: National Response Framework Resource Center

Definition     Exercise: an instrument to train for, assess, practice, and improve performance in prevention, protection, response, and recovery capabilities in a risk-free environment. Exercises can be used for: testing and validating policies, plans, procedures, training, equipment, and inter­agency agreements; clarifying and training personnel in roles and responsibilities; improving interagency coordination and communications; identifying gaps in resources; improving individual performance; and identifying opportunities for improvement. Source: Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation Program

Critical characteristics of problem solving and decision making are different for each phase of an emergency as shown in the table below.

Preparation     Response     Recovery     Information High Little Moderate Time Frame Long Short Moderate Consequences     Low High Moderate

Definitions     Preparedness: The range of deliberate, critical tasks and activities necessary to build, sustain, and improve the operational capability to prevent, protect against, respond to, and recover from domestic incidents. Response: Activities that address the short-term, direct effects of an incident. Response includes immediate actions to save lives, protect property, and meet basic human needs. Recovery: The development, coordination, and execution of service- and site-restoration plans; the reconstitution of government operations and services; individual, private-sector, nongovernmental, and public-assistance programs to provide housing and to promote restoration; long-term care and treatment of affected persons; additional measures for social, political, environmental, and economic restoration; evaluation of the incident to identify lessons learned; post-incident reporting; and development of initiatives to mitigate the effects of future incidents. Source: Department of Homeland Security, National Incident Management System (NIMS), 2008.

The preparation phase of emergency management is future-oriented. Decisions can be tested (through exercises, brainstorming, collaborations, etc.) and reevaluated extensively because time is not, generally, a pressing concern. Our goal is to optimize in preparation. When we are responding to an emergency, time is of the essence. We typically have incomplete information and no time to collect that information. Often, applying a less than optimal solution in a timely manner saves lives and property. During recovery, our concerns regarding ongoing damage and casualties from the event have receded. For many recovery operations (e.g. debris removal) we can take our time using an efficient and effective procedure.

Exercise     You are an emergency manager for a district that borders a river which is prone to flooding. Your job is to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding events. What information is essential to solving this problem? How does the magnitude of the event affect your approach? Outline several alternative response steps that you might develop. Rank those steps in the order that you might implement them. How might you prepare to respond and recover? How does the district's land use (e.g. residential, industrial, agricultural, nature, etc.) affect your decisions?

Resources     FEMA Course IS241 Decision Making and Problem Solving

Copyright © 2011 Ken Sochats