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| NPHS 1510: Federal and International Framework |
| Emergency Problem Solving, Decision-Making and Risk |
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| Decision Making |
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The following sections focus on decision making as a modeling process. Emphasis is placed on measuring decision factors and applying algorithmic models to the problem at hand. By developing models for classes of emergency decisions we hope to:
- Identify the scope of the decision. Modeling helps to codify the parameters impacting a decision. It also helps the decision maker determine which of these parameters he or she can control or influence.
- Make decisions more rational. A decision is the selection of a course of action from all viable potential actions. In order to make an informed decision, the decision maker needs to evaluate these alternatives. Quantifying the outcomes of a decision allow us to employ mathematical and/or logical methods.
- Make decision making teachable. Modeling removes the mystique from decision-making.
- Facilitate communications among decision makers and others. When all of the decision makers share the same or similar models of a decision, they can more directly evaluate and discuss the implications and outcomes of the decisions. In emergency management, this is referred to as a Common Operating Picture (COP).
- Define and improve the quality of decisions.
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| Definition |
Common Operating Picture (COP): An overview of an incident by all relevant parties that provides incident information enabling the Incident Commander/Unified Command and any supporting agencies and organizations to make effective, consistent, and timely decisions.
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The presentation does not cover psychological, ethical or other decision factors. Nor does it treat group decision making. For a broader qualitative exploration of decision making, see the material below.
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Decision making may be narrowly thought of as the selection of a choice from a number of options. The optimal decision is thus the best choice. This implies that we have knowledge of the available choices and their relative values and can rationally compare those values. In the emergency context, this is called situational awareness.
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OOne way to classify decision-making situations is in terms of the situational awareness of the decision maker. A common classification for decision-making is:
- Decisions Under Certainty
- Decisions of Risk (Uncertainty)
- Competitive Decisions (Games)
While no real decision situation is purely any one of these categories, we will use this framework to explore emergency decision making.
In most emergency operations making decisions quickly is essential. The more certain the situation is the easier and quicker we can make a decision and act. One way in which we can speed up the decision proceess is by preparing for the anticipated decisions. Standard Operating Procedures, or SOPs, identify key decisions that must be made, the alternatives available, and a prescribe actions for those alternatives. At decision time, all the emergency manager has to do is identify the situation that triggers the SOP. The SOPs are created during the preparation phased so that there is no time pressure and the procedures can be tested through exercise or other mechanisms. A typical SOP for an earthquake would be:
Inform "OUR UTILITY PROVIDERS" of any known electrical and gas complications.
SOPs might be general enough to cover several types of emergencies. During the process of creating the SOP, we would fill in the appropriate identification and contact information for "OUR UTILITY PROVIDERS". For example, we might use the SOP listed above for a building explosion or other event. We would also regularly visit the SOPs to insure that the information is current.
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| Definition |
Emergency Operations Plan (EOP): The ‘response’ plan that an entity (facility, jurisdiction, State, etc.) maintains for reacting to any hazard event. It provides action guidance for management and emergency response personnel.
Source: HHS, Medical Surge Capacity and Capability Handbook, 2004. |
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| An Emergency Operations Plan (EOP) would contain the SOPs and other scenario information. Most higher level jurisdictions produce plan templates for their sub jurisdictions to use. This standardizing of plan formats fosters joint operations and mutual aid, reduces jurisdictional disputes, and produces many other benefits. |
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| Exercise | Develop several emergency standard operating procedures for a fire in a building where you work or go to school. |
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| Resources |
Virginia Local Emergency Plan Template, Commonwealth of Virginia
Developing Effective Standard Operating Procedures
For Fire and EMS Departments, National Fire prevention Association
Decision Making and Problem Solving, Herbert A. Simon and Associates
Mind Tools, mindtools.com
Management Help, managementhelp.org
A Principled Method of Scenario Design for Testing Emergency Response Decision-Making, Jill L. Drury, Loretta More, Mark Pfaff, and Gary L. Klein
Use of Health Economics for Decision-making in Complex Emergencies, "Health systems in emergency and post-emergency reconstruction - use of economics for decision-making", Paris, 16 -18 December 1999, Department of Emergency and Humanitarian Action of the World Health Organization (WHO-EHA) and the Federation for International Cooperation of Health Services and Systems Research Centres (FICOSSER).
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| Copyright © 2011 Ken Sochats |
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